LOS ANGELES -- Now comes the hard part.

After ending the state's 51-day budget stalemate, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and California's legislators have less than three weeks to confront critical -- but so far largely dormant -- policy issues; they include the Governor's wish list of health care reform, redistricting reform, and water policy. Handling these will make the recently completed budget negotiations seem like the proverbial "walk in the park."

Talk about the column on Politalk.com

This year, the budget was held for ideological and political ransom by Republican senators, who wanted to send a message to Schwarzenegger and the Democratic majority: "Yo, we're relevant! Deal with us!"

As such, the budget standoff was mostly an "inside" game. Sure the cuts made by Schwarzenegger, in an effort to mollify Republicans, hurt real people -- although, not necessarily most voters; but the fight was at the margins, because so much spending is now locked in through ballot-box budgeting. And, from Day One of the budget process, the issue of tax increases to fund programs was a nonstarter -- or the GOP might still be holding out.

What's left on the Governor's agenda could prove to be even thornier. There is a slew of "outside" interest groups mobilizing to protect threatened turf. And when economic interests engage ideological or political allies and enemies, the battle intensifies dramatically and negotiations become more complicated.

There's no better example than the Governor's sweeping health care reform initiative. When he proposed his plan last January, it turned heads nationwide. Not only would it require health insurance coverage for every Californian, it would mandate shared responsibility for that coverage -- that meant governments, health care providers, businesses and individuals would all have to share the costs.

Although smaller states had already taken steps toward expanding coverage, observed the Washington Post, "[t]he adoption of a comprehensive plan to overhaul health care in a big, politically influential state probably would spur similar efforts around the country and increase pressure on presidential candidates to tackle the issue."

Like his environmental proposals, Schwarzenegger's imprimatur on health care reform could be a way for the Governor, barred from running for President himself (something many Republicans wistfully rue these days), to influence the national debate. However, Schwarzenegger's health plan didn't move, as Democrats sought a less comprehensive bill that, they argued, could pass with a simple majority vote and legislative Republicans remained opposed to any tax to fund health care. Then budget maneuvers knocked health care -- and almost everything else -- off the legislative agenda.

Now the Governor has focused again on this top priority. So have the Democrats and several powerful interests impacted by Schwarzenegger's proposals. Compromise is becoming a rough go.

Business groups are antsy about the proposed employer "fee" (aka "tax") and could go to court to require a two-thirds legislative vote to impose it. Doctors and hospitals don't like the so-called "provider tax," either. The Governor has vowed to veto the Democrats' plan because it puts too much burden on employers. The Democrats, and their labor allies, recoil from Schwarzenegger's insistence that any plan must require every Californian to have health insurance.

That doesn't mean nothing will come out of the last few weeks of the legislative session. Remember, crafting policy is a lot like real estate. First, there is the "asking price." The seller usually asks for more than he knows he can get. Governor Schwarzenegger has, at least on health care, set his demands too high for the potential buyer -- legislative Democrats--to accept.

The potential buyer (the Democratic majority) will counter with their offer, which is usually well below (or, in politics, different from) the seller's asking price.

Somewhere in between the two figures lies the selling price, usually reached, in the housing market -- as well as in the legislative arena -- after rounds and rounds of negotiations. But Governor Schwarzenegger and the State Legislature don't have that kind of time.

There's speculation around the State Capitol that Schwarzenegger will call legislators back into one or more special sessions, after the regular session adjourns in September. But that's not enough leeway to solve the complex problems facing the state, although it give Sacramento just enough time to paper them over before politicians face the 2008 campaign season.

Health care reform may or may not occur. Last year, after months of wrangling and many fits and starts, an infrastructure bond package came together in a matter of days. The same thing could happen with health care, if the governor and legislative Democrats can reach agreement -- especially on a bill which requires only a majority vote.

Similarly, we may see a couple of water bonds thrown to voters. Or Schwarzenegger and the Democrats could cut a last-minute deal on revising term limits and enacting redistricting reforms; that would put both on the February ballot. (A term-limits initiative will likely turn up then, and just as the Democrats are hungry for the Governor's support or, at least, his neutrality on that proposal, Schwarzenegger needs legislative support for his still-fuzzy redistricting plan.)

But State Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata (D-Oakland) admitted, "Time is working against it ... When we try to do things fast around here, we usually make mistakes that we regret."

Once again, without adequate planning or enough time to thoroughly debate policy options, and with a collective, public demand for instant political gratification, California's leaders may legislate in haste, only to have their constituents repent at leisure.

To contact Sherry, you can email her here.

More Political Perspectives

Politics Page